A note on the proposed August 1st protest

By Abdulrahman Obaje

Before we embark on the proposed August 1^st protest, let us take some lessons from past protests in the country and around the world.

In Sudan, the anti-austerity protest that started in December 19^th, 2018 over the price of bread and fuel were initially focused on living costs – but soon demonstrators also started demanding that Mr Bashir step down.

Bashir that came to power in a military coup in 1989 and ruled Sudan for almost 30 years under different titles with an iron fist had remained defiant. Eventually, within four months of the protest, on April 11^th, 2019, the military announced that Mr Bashir had been ousted and arrested. The government was replaced with a transitional government.

At that time, many Sudanese believed there is going to be significant change in their country. But in 2021, tens of thousands of Sudanese returned to the streets again, angry over soaring prices for the same necessities.

Sahar Al Jazouli, a member of a grassroots group Al Kalakla Abu Adam Resistance Committee that helped organize one of the protests, said people are fed up with skyrocketing inflation.

Saying that, “The demands that we have been making since the time of President Bashir are still the same, and the high cost of living is at the top of them, and these demonstrations going on right now are a right that we earned through our civilian revolution,” Al Jazouli told VOA’s South Sudan in Focus then.

The transitional government recently removed subsidies for fuel and other items, as part of economic reforms demanded by the International Monetary Fund.

Days after the fuel subsidies were eliminated in October, 2020 the price of diesel doubled. In the two months that followed, prices for a loaf of bread and a kilowatt of electricity more than tripled.

Mohamed Ali Fazari, editor-in-chief of the online newspaper Khartoum Today, said some protesters are demanding that the entire transitional government be removed if conditions do not improve quickly.

He said different people have different agendas in the latest protests, including the Sudanese Professional Association, a group that mobilized many protesters in 2019.

“The other group is the communist parties and others that are against the economic policies of the government, and the other group which has another agenda like the Islamists and followers of the ousted regime,” said Fazari.

Both Fazari and Al Jazouli said the remaining pro-Bashir officials in office were looking to exploit the protests to undermine the transitional government and create chaos but the overwhelming majority of protesters were on the streets to demand better living conditions, not to remove the government.

Down the line economic situation and hardship in Sudan has not abate. Bread and other food commodities prices are soaring. As reported by reliefweb located at https://reliefweb.int/report/sudan/sudanese-dying-hunger-omdurman-food-prices-rise-daily on July 21st, 2024, People are reportedly dying of hunger in the old Omdurman neighbourhoods of El Mulazemin and Abrof. Prices of basic consumer goods in the markets of Omdurman witnessed a large increase week before, ranging from 33 to 50 per cent.

Sheikh El Amin Omar, leader of the Sudanese El Gadiriya El Mukashfi Sufi order, explained in a phone call from his compound, in the Wad Nubawi neighbourhood in old Omdurman that people in El Mulazemin and Abrof are suffering from famine amidst a deteriorating security situation.

All the soup kitchens (takaya in Arabic) in old Omdurman have stopped working. The area of old Omdurman, regained by the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) from the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in February, is not very secure. “He who does not die by the fire of weapons, dies of famine”, he told Radio Dabanga.

Partly, the economic problem in Sudan and other places may not be unconnected with the global economic situation which is on a downward trajectory.

According to Numbeo located at https://www.numbeo.com/cost-of-living/, as at July 2024, though Rent in Ghana is, on average, 51.9% lower than in Nigeria, A family of four estimated monthly costs are 2,047.7$ without rent. A single person estimated monthly costs are 570.3$ without rent. Cost of living in Ghana is, on average, 27.5% higher than in Nigeria.

The average cost of a loaf of bread in the US is around $2.50. In South Africa, it is approximately $0.981. However, if you buy from local shops or tuck shops, the price may be higher, around R14.50 for white bread and R17.00 for brown bread.

The economic situation in the country is dire. From fuel to every other commodities, things are no more affordable. The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), said Nigeria’s food inflation rate hit a record high of 40.66 percent in May 2024, surpassing the previous month’s 40.53 increase. Cadre Harmonisé analysis, in its March 2024 release approximated that 4.8 million people in Borno, Adamawa, and Yobe states are experiencing severe food insecurity, the highest level in seven years.

However, violent protest and unrest has not help bring succour to Sudan. Violent protest will not bring the immediate changes we desire. A selfish protest organiser will not tell you this.

And let us observe those calling for the protest. Let us scrutinise their background and be sure it is not in their selfish interest. Let us be sure that their family members, even abroad would come down to join the protest. Do not let anybody cajole us to embark on a selfish and disastrous protest that will spell doom for our future. Let us use our head!

Instead, the Civil Society Organisations, professional bodies and individuals should engage more with the federal government and make their findings and activities public.

We know that the Federal Government is trying but it should do more by engaging the Civil Society Organisations, professional bodies, opposition parties and individuals to alleviate the immediate and long term suffering of the masses, as this type of suffering is strange to our people

Prince Abdulrahman Obaje writes from Ordu Kingdom.