Opinion
A note on the proposed August 1st protest
By Abdulrahman Obaje
Before we embark on the proposed August 1st protest, let us take some lessons from past protests in the country and around the world.
In Sudan, the anti-austerity protest that started in December 19th, 2018 over the price of bread and fuel were initially focused on living costs – but soon demonstrators also started demanding that Mr Bashir step down.
At that time, many Sudanese believed there is going to be significant change in their country. But in 2021, tens of thousands of Sudanese returned to the streets again, angry over soaring prices for the same necessities.
Sahar Al Jazouli, a member of a grassroots group Al Kalakla Abu Adam Resistance Committee that helped organize one of the protests, said people are fed up with skyrocketing inflation.
Saying that, “The demands that we have been making since the time of President Bashir are still the same, and the high cost of living is at the top of them, and these demonstrations going on right now are a right that we earned through our civilian revolution,” Al Jazouli told VOA’s South Sudan in Focus then.
The transitional government recently removed subsidies for fuel and other items, as part of economic reforms demanded by the International Monetary Fund.
Days after the fuel subsidies were eliminated in October, 2020 the price of diesel doubled. In the two months that followed, prices for a loaf of bread and a kilowatt of electricity more than tripled.
Mohamed Ali Fazari, editor-in-chief of the online newspaper Khartoum Today, said some protesters are demanding that the entire transitional government be removed if conditions do not improve quickly.
He said different people have different agendas in the latest protests, including the Sudanese Professional Association, a group that mobilized many protesters in 2019.
“The other group is the communist parties and others that are against the economic policies of the government, and the other group which has another agenda like the Islamists and followers of the ousted regime,” said Fazari.
Both Fazari and Al Jazouli said the remaining pro-Bashir officials in office were looking to exploit the protests to undermine the transitional government and create chaos but the overwhelming majority of protesters were on the streets to demand better living conditions, not to remove the government.
Down the line economic situation and hardship in Sudan has not abate. Bread and other food commodities prices are soaring. As reported by reliefweb located at https://reliefweb.int/report/sudan/sudanese-dying-hunger-omdurman-food-prices-rise-daily on July 21st, 2024, People are reportedly dying of hunger in the old Omdurman neighbourhoods of El Mulazemin and Abrof. Prices of basic consumer goods in the markets of Omdurman witnessed a large increase week before, ranging from 33 to 50 per cent.
Sheikh El Amin Omar, leader of the Sudanese El Gadiriya El Mukashfi Sufi order, explained in a phone call from his compound, in the Wad Nubawi neighbourhood in old Omdurman that people in El Mulazemin and Abrof are suffering from famine amidst a deteriorating security situation.
All the soup kitchens (takaya in Arabic) in old Omdurman have stopped working. The area of old Omdurman, regained by the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) from the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in February, is not very secure. “He who does not die by the fire of weapons, dies of famine”, he told Radio Dabanga.
Partly, the economic problem in Sudan and other places may not be unconnected with the global economic situation which is on a downward trajectory.
According to Numbeo located at https://www.numbeo.com/cost-of-living/, as at July 2024, though Rent in Ghana is, on average, 51.9% lower than in Nigeria, A family of four estimated monthly costs are 2,047.7$ without rent. A single person estimated monthly costs are 570.3$ without rent. Cost of living in Ghana is, on average, 27.5% higher than in Nigeria.
The average cost of a loaf of bread in the US is around $2.50. In South Africa, it is approximately $0.981. However, if you buy from local shops or tuck shops, the price may be higher, around R14.50 for white bread and R17.00 for brown bread.
The economic situation in the country is dire. From fuel to every other commodities, things are no more affordable. The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), said Nigeria’s food inflation rate hit a record high of 40.66 percent in May 2024, surpassing the previous month’s 40.53 increase. Cadre Harmonisé analysis, in its March 2024 release approximated that 4.8 million people in Borno, Adamawa, and Yobe states are experiencing severe food insecurity, the highest level in seven years.
However, violent protest and unrest has not help bring succour to Sudan. Violent protest will not bring the immediate changes we desire. A selfish protest organiser will not tell you this.
And let us observe those calling for the protest. Let us scrutinise their background and be sure it is not in their selfish interest. Let us be sure that their family members, even abroad would come down to join the protest. Do not let anybody cajole us to embark on a selfish and disastrous protest that will spell doom for our future. Let us use our head!
Instead, the Civil Society Organisations, professional bodies and individuals should engage more with the federal government and make their findings and activities public.
We know that the Federal Government is trying but it should do more by engaging the Civil Society Organisations, professional bodies, opposition parties and individuals to alleviate the immediate and long term suffering of the masses, as this type of suffering is strange to our people
Prince Abdulrahman Obaje writes from Ordu Kingdom.
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LIES VS FACTS: Revisiting The Aregbesola Years In Osun
By Gbenga Shaba
Public debates about Rauf Aregbesola’s time as Osun governor often swing between praise and criticism, but many arguments overlook the economic realities of that period. The nationwide recession from 2014 to 2016 hit state finances hard, with 23 states unable to pay salaries at all. adsbygoogle || []).push({});
One of the biggest misconceptions is that Aregbesola intentionally paid half salaries. In reality, the Labour Government Salary Apportionment Committee, which was made up of labour leaders and government officials, jointly agreed on a temporary modulated payment structure to prevent mass layoffs. Throughout the recession, over 70 percent of workers (junior staff, teachers, health workers and local government employees) continued receiving full salaries and pensions. The modulation applied mainly to senior officers and political appointees.
Another widespread falsehood is that Aregbesola’s successor, Gboyega Oyetola, inherited the salary modulation. Records show this is untrue. A few outstanding balances of the modulated salaries were already cleared before Aregbesola handed over, and full salary payment had resumed eight months before the end of his administration.
Beyond the salary debate, Osun continued major development programmes. The School Feeding initiative served 254,000 pupils daily and later became a national policy. Thousands of classrooms were constructed or rebuilt, the OYES youth programme absorbed unemployed youths, and road projects continued across the state despite the financial strain.
It is true that the recession created emotional and financial pain for many families, and their feelings are valid. But emotions cannot replace verified facts. Transparency was maintained throughout the crisis, and Aregbesola’s strong grassroots support today reflects public recognition of his long term developmental impact.
The Aregbesola years were a mix of economic challenges and visible transformation. Narratives based on half truths may trend online, but they cannot erase the documented reforms, infrastructural investments and social programmes that reshaped Osun during one of Nigeria’s toughest economic periods.
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Opinion
Is Nigeria Becoming A Failed State Under President Tinubu?
By Gbenga Shaba
Nigeria is currently at one of the most troubling security crossroads in its history. The scale and frequency of violent attacks, mass abductions, territorial infiltration by bandits and terror groups, and the collapse of safety in many communities have raised serious questions about the capacity of the state to protect its citizens. com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js">
Across the northern region, the wave of kidnappings and attacks has forced governments to take drastic measures. Katsina State ordered the immediate closure of all government schools. Taraba State directed that all secondary schools should operate only as day schools. These decisions were not made out of convenience. They were made out of fear. They were made because students have become targets, and schools have become vulnerable grounds. Education, the foundation of national development, is now under threat.
In recent weeks, the scale of kidnappings has escalated sharply. In Niger State, 34 students and three teachers were abducted from a government secondary school. They spent several days in captivity, enduring harsh conditions with limited food and water. Negotiations for their release were tense, with parents and authorities working tirelessly to secure their safe return. In Kebbi State, more than 40 children and 10 staff members were abducted from a private academy. The victims described being blindfolded, bundled into vehicles, and transported through forested areas under armed guard. In several other incidents across Kaduna, Zamfara, and Katsina, hundreds of men, women, and children have been taken in separate attacks, some held for weeks before rescue or ransom payments were made.
As if that was not enough, just few hours ago, some residents of Isapa in Kwara were abducted. Pregnant women, nursing mothers and children were allegedly abducted.
The ordeal for these children and their families is traumatic. Parents live in constant fear of the next attack, and even when children are rescued, they often return home in shock and fear. Many students have developed anxiety about returning to school, and communities are traumatized, with the memories of abduction and violence lingering long after the victims are freed.
Even more worrying is the deepening culture of ransom payments. Reports indicate that over ₦1 billion has been paid to bandits in recent weeks alone. This alarming trend not only empowers criminal networks but also signals the state’s weakening control. When kidnappers see consistent payouts from the government or local authorities, it encourages further attacks, creating a vicious cycle of fear and extortion.
This raises a critical question: Is Nigeria drifting toward a failed state under the current administration?
A country moves toward failure when the government can no longer protect its citizens, secure its borders, enforce laws, provide essential services, and maintain public confidence. Judged by these indicators, Nigeria is showing many worrying signs. The strength of non-state armed groups is rising. Large parts of the country are becoming ungoverned spaces. Communities are living under constant fear. Schools are shutting down. Businesses are relocating. Farmers are abandoning their fields. Ordinary Nigerians no longer trust the state to safeguard their lives.
President Tinubu came into office with promises of firm action on security. Nearly two years later, the practical reality suggests that insecurity is expanding faster than the response to it. Despite efforts by the security agencies, violent groups remain active and resilient. The lives of citizens are increasingly threatened, and the confidence in government’s capacity to reverse the trend is weakening.
It is therefore understandable when analysts conclude that the government is failing in the area of security. Citizens like Deacon Olanrewaju have voiced what many Nigerians feel: children are now staying at home not because of a pandemic but because of fear. Communities are shutting down not because of a virus but because of terror. The country is experiencing a form of paralysis driven by violence and fear.
Just like COVID-19, insecurity is gradually locking Nigeria down.
During the COVID era, movement was restricted, economic activities were disrupted, and schools were forced to close. Today, Nigeria is witnessing the same pattern, but the cause is not a global disease. It is insecurity. Communities are avoiding travel. States are closing schools. Businesses are shrinking their operations. Citizens live indoors once the sun sets. The sense of national freedom is shrinking under the weight of fear.
Nigeria may not yet be officially classified as a failed state, but the signs are becoming too visible to ignore. Without urgent, intelligent, and coordinated action, the country risks sliding deeper into a security crisis that will be harder to reverse.
Just like Simon Kolawole recalls what President Bola Tinubu said years ago. I recall that on November 5, 2014, in Ilorin, Kwara State, at a rally organised by Governor Abdulfatah Ahmed to declare his second-term bid, the APC leaders spoke one after the other about insecurity in Nigeria. Among those in attendance were Gen Muhammadu Buhari, then a presidential aspirant, Alhaji Abubakar Atiku, also an aspirant, Rt Hon Aminu Tambuwal, then speaker of the house of reps, and Alhaji Lai Mohammed, then the APC spokesman. Tinubu, who was the national leader of the party, said I saw the sea of refugees caused by the Boko Haram insurgents and the lies coming from Jonathan’s administration. They have exhibited failure, lack of capacity, vision and creativity.
He went further. The lies of yesterday are what they repeat today and are what they will repeat tomorrow. If you control the armed forces and you are the Commander-in-Chief, why should any part of this country be under occupation? And you give us excuses every day. In any civilised country, Jonathan should have resigned. But if he will not resign, he should wait for our broom. We will sweep him away.
They swept Jonathan away. But here we are, a decade later.
Tinubu is now the Commander-in-Chief, but Nigeria remains under siege. We could poke fun at the APC today and say they are only getting a dose of their own medicine. But it is human lives, the lives of Nigerians, that we are talking about here. We are talking about a reign of terror, about helpless Nigerians being abducted, about hapless Nigerians being killed for fun. If nothing else, it should make us sober. If nothing else, we should learn from our past and put politics aside regarding matters of security.
This is the moment for honest reflection and decisive leadership. What Nigeria faces today is not just a temporary challenge. It is a test of the state’s ability to protect its people and preserve its sovereignty. The longer this insecurity wave continues, the closer the nation moves toward the edge of failure.
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Opinion
#Ebinpawa: Nigerians Decry Tinubu’s Anti-social Policies, Ask — Can Awolowo Ever Do This?
By Gbenga Shaba
When Nigerians coined the hashtag #Ebinpawa, it wasn’t just a joke. It was a cry of exhaustion, a desperate lament from citizens stretched beyond survival. President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s 15% fuel import duty has now become another wound on a people already bleeding from endless reforms that punish instead of protection. js">
Between Reform and Ruin: A People Betrayed
Tinubu’s administration calls it reform, a path to fiscal recovery. But for millions of Nigerians, these policies feel more like a betrayal than a rebirth. Every new “economic adjustment” digs deeper into the pockets of those who have nothing left to give.
Since the removal of fuel subsidy and the floating of the naira, prices have spiralled. Now, this 15% duty on imported fuel adds insult to injury. The government promises a stronger economy, but all Nigerians see is a weaker household.
The Human Cost: Ordinary Nigerians Paying the Price
For the average Nigerian, economics isn’t theory, it’s ’s breakfast, transport, and rent. A man who once spent ₦2,000 on daily transport now spends ₦3,000. The food vendor pays double for cooking gas. The barber struggles to afford petrol for his generator.
Farmers face rising costs for diesel, while small business owners can barely keep the lights on. Survival has become a privilege. Behind every statistic of “growth” lies a story of human deprivation, children pulled from school, meals skipped, dreams deferred.
Taxing Misery in the Name of Reform
The tragedy of Tinubu’s economic policy lies not just in its impact but in its intent. Governance has become a numbers and citizens reduced to economic data points.
Fuel, a basic necessity, is treated like a luxury item to be taxed. The government calls it “fiscal prudence,” but it’s closer to moral blindness. A system that balances books by breaking backs is not reforming. It’s exploiting.
When you tax misery, you create resentment. When you justify it as reform, you lose empathy.
The Politics of Pain
Let’s not pretend this 15% duty is merely economic, it’s deeply political. It reflects a government that preaches sacrifice but practices inequality.
Powerful elites shield themselves from the consequences of policies they impose. Meanwhile, the masses are told to “tighten their belts,” as if hunger were an act of patriotism.
Tinubu’s rhetoric of “sacrifice for a better tomorrow” has lost meaning. When sacrifice becomes perpetual, it stops being patriotic, and it becomes institutionalized suffering.
Trump’s Stand on Genocide in Nigeria
Even across the Atlantic, voices are rising. U.S. President Donald Trump recently condemned the escalating violence in Nigeria, calling attention to what he described as “a slow-motion genocide” against Christians. His remarks have reignited international debate on Nigeria’s worsening insecurity and the government’s selective silence.
While Nigerians battle economic hardship, they also live in fear of kidnappers, bandits, and religious extremists. Tinubu’s government can not claim reform while failing to protect its people. There’s no economic revival in a climate of fear and bloodshed.
A Nation at the Crossroads
The 15% fuel import duty is more than a fiscal measure — it’s a moral test of leadership. How much more can Nigerians endure in the name of reform? How long before survival replaces faith in governance?
Awolowo once said that “the worst crime is poverty in the midst of plenty.” Today, Nigerians live that reality — plenty promises, but empty plates.
The cries of #Ebinpawa are not just trending words; they are history being written in the language of pain. If leadership does not listen, the reform they call progress will become the ruin the people call betrayal.
What A True Progressive Would Have Done…
Progressives are known by their actions. They are not swayed by rhetorics. They don’t pass blames. They simply act!
Unlike what we are currently experiencing in Nigeria, true Progressives like Obafemi Awolowo’s emphasises on polices that focused on welfarism and modernization, most notably introducing free primary education and free healthcare for children under 18 in the Western Region. His administration also launched infrastructure projects like the first television station in Africa (WNTV) and established industrial initiatives, such as the Ikeja Industrial Estate and a cooperative to support cocoa farmers. He was a proponent of federalism, fiscal discipline, and using state resources for social and economic development.
He implemented universal free primary education in the Western Region, boosted literacy rates, and established new schools and teacher training colleges.
Introduced free healthcare for all children under the age of 18 and established a hospital in every administrative division.
He advocated for federalism, regional autonomy, and fiscal discipline, believing that education was crucial for national progress and that the government should invest resources in social services and development.
Awolowo would have put the people first and would have created some sort of soft landing to prevent the kind of deep hardship that has ruined so many businesses and livelihoods.
Today, the man leading us is claiming to be progressive but not in his actions and policies. Nigerians can no longer feed themselves. Out of school children are on the rise, insecurity is now the new national anthem, and the cost of living is now sending people to their graves. Nigerians are crying #Ebinpawa.
Gbenga Shaba, is a renowned journalist.
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